WASHINGTON — Global carbon pollution rose this year after three straight years when levels of the heat-trapping gas didn't go up at all, scientists reported Monday.
Preliminary figures project that worldwide carbon dioxide emissions are up about 2 percent this year, according to an international team of scientists. Most of the increase came from China.
The report by the Global Carbon Project team dashed hopes that emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas had peaked.
"We hoped that we had turned the corner. We haven't," said study co-author Rob Jackson, an Earth scientist at Stanford University.
Carbon dioxide emissions rose steadily and slowly starting in the late 1880s with the Industrial Revolution, then took off dramatically in the 1950s. In the last three years, levels had stabilized at about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
Estimates for 2017 put it at about 40.8 billion tons. Sixty years ago, the world spewed only 9.2 billion tons.
"It's a bit staggering," said co-author Ralph Keeling, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography scientist, noting in an email that levels have increased fourfold since he was born in the 1950s. "We race headlong into the unknown."
Man-made carbon dioxide is causing more than 90 percent of global warming since 1950, U.S. scientists reported this month.
This year's increase was mostly spurred by a 3.5 percent jump in Chinese carbon pollution, said study co-author Glen Peters, a Norwegian scientist. Declines in the United States (0.4 percent) and Europe (0.2 percent) were smaller than previous years. India, the No. 3 carbon polluting nation, went up 2 percent.
The 2017 estimate comes to on average of 2.57 million pounds of carbon dioxide spewing into the air every second.
The study was published Monday and is being presented in Bonn, Germany, during climate talks where leaders are trying to come up with rules for the 2015 Paris deal. The goal is to limit temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since preindustrial times, but it's already warmed half that amount.
"It was tough enough and if this paper is indicative of long-term trends, it just got tougher," said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who wasn't part of the team of 76 scientists who wrote the report.
While he called the study authoritative, Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said he sees no need to do figures for 2017 that are not complete, saying it may be "jumping the gun a bit."
Jackson said the team — which produces these reports every year in November — has confidence in its 2017 report because it is based on real data from top polluting nations through the summer and in some cases through October. Plus, he said past estimates have been correct within a couple tenths of a percentage point.
The top five carbon polluting countries are China, the United States, India, Russia and Japan. Europe taken as a whole, would rank third.
Oil prices have jumped by about one-third since the summer on signs of stronger economic growth around the world and fear of instability in the Middle East.
So far, however, the run-up isn't setting off alarm bells. Prices remain far below their 2014 peaks. And U.S. producers are pumping at a record rate, leading some experts to bet that the higher prices won't last long.
At midday Monday, Brent crude, the benchmark international price, was down 27 cents to $63.25, while the standard for U.S. oil was up 10 cents to $56.84.
Those are sharp increases since mid-June — about 35 percent for U.S. crude, nearly 40 percent for Brent.
"That means slightly higher inflation, but we're not talking about unmanageable prices," said Diane Swonk, chief economist of DS Economics. "If it got back to $100 a barrel, then we would have a real problem."
Swonk said discretionary spending by consumers seems to be holding up despite the increase that has already shown up at the pump. In her mind and those of other economists, we are in better shape to manage higher energy prices for many reasons including a stronger economy and job growth.
Still, consumers will feel the effect, even if it's less dramatic than price spikes in 2008 and 2014. In the U.S., the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen 30 cents since early July.
Higher fuel costs show up in all kinds of things consumers buy, but some industries are particularly vulnerable. For airlines, for instance, jet fuel rivals labor as the biggest cost — each accounts for about one-third of all expenses.
Helane Becker, an analyst for Cowen and Co., said that with oil in the mid-$60s, she expects airlines to attempt to raise ticket prices. If fuel prices continue to rise, she said, the airlines will cut back on plans to increase flying next year. That could tighten the supply of airline seats, driving prices yet higher.
Andrew Kenningham, chief global economist at Capital Economics in London, said however that the impact of higher oil prices on companies and households will be limited because for the year as a whole, average oil prices are up only slightly over 2016.
"So far the price moves have not been huge, so the economic impact shouldn't be that large," Kenningham said. He called the increase in average prices for 2017 "trivial" compared with the collapse from around $115 to less than $30 a barrel that occurred between mid-2014 and early 2016.
Crude prices began rising this summer as positive signs rolled in for the world's biggest energy-hungry economies: the U.S., Europe and China. Prices were also influenced as expectations grew that OPEC would continue to limit production next year, and on rising tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, is in the midst of an internal power struggle. Its ambitious crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, has ordered the arrests of rivals, and some think he could take a tougher line against Iran, Saudi Arabia's rival for pre-eminence in the Middle East. That raises uncertainty about future oil supplies from the oil-rich region.
However, many market-watchers expect such Mideast tensions to boost oil prices only temporarily — unless a direct conflict breaks out between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Meanwhile, higher prices are encouraging U.S. companies to pump more. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that domestic production hit a record 9.62 million barrels of oil a day in the week that ended Nov. 3, bouncing back from less than 8.5 million barrels a day as recently as October 2016.
Oilfield-services company Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of U.S. oil rigs showed the biggest one-week increase since June.
The drilling frenzy in the U.S. could frustrate OPEC's attempt to limit supplies and bolster prices.
Analysts at Germany's Commerzbank say drilling activity tends to rise about four months after a rise in oil prices. So, they concluded, "there is much to suggest that last week's rise in drilling activity marked the start of a trend."
"It is most likely that oil prices will drop back," Kenningham said. "Investors continue to anticipate that prices will drop."