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Scholar: Timing, rules decided pitch of primary battles

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CARBONDALE - This year's presidential primaries left Republicans a lot less tired than Democrats. But a new paper by a Southern Illinois University Carbondale political scientist points out the ease or difficultly parties have choosing candidates depends on the party's own rules.

John Jackson, visiting professor at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, has written "The 2008 Presidential Nominations Process, a Marathon and a Sprint," which examines the differences in national party rules that made the Democratic nomination a closer and longer contest than the Republican process.

Democrats created their primary rules long before this season's showdown between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Jackson said, so the fact both candidates carried historical significance was a coincidence.

"Democrats are more concerned about representing everybody and making sure no one is shut out," Jackson said.

The Democrats predominantly use a proportional representation system, which Jackson noted allocate delegates based on percentage of votes won. That system, which requires a 15 percent of the vote minimum, heavily favors the top two candidates, he noted.

Such a concept may be good for voters, but the long primary created a rift between backers of Obama, and Clinton that hasn't yet been repaired, he added.

"That may not necessarily strengthen them for the fall, and that's the challenge Obama faces by not being able to get all the Clinton people on board," Jackson said.

In the case of the Republicans and their presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain or Arizona, Jackson said the rules are less forgiving to the runners-up in each state contest.

Republicans largely use a winner-take-all approach, which makes stacking up wins early in the process vital.

Indeed, no less an authority than President Bill Clinton noted that had the Democrats used such a system, party rules and timing would have led to a far shorter primary battle, with Sen. Clinton presumably taking the nomination.

McCain, who won no public opinion polls in 2007, Jackson said, essentially was able to win the GOP nomination with well-timed victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

For example, McCain was able to dispatch former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani - who'd been thought for more than a year to be the Republican frontrunner - with a narrow win in Florida on Jan. 29.

Giuliani had placed so many of his resources in an effort to win Florida, his run was fatally wounded and McCain was free to focus on his remaining opponents.

While McCain's quick victory on its surface appears to help Republican Party unity, it may have left supporters of other contenders, such as Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, feeling jilted, Jackson added.

Jackson said he favors a presidential primary process that includes as many states and as many voters as possible.

"It is after all the only national office we have. Why shouldn't every state have equal say?" he said.

Mike Lawrence, director of the public policy institute, which released the paper, said there are advantages and disadvantages to the rules both parties established, adding Jackson's analysis of the issue will be a good resource in evaluating what happened post-election.

"We certainly support what he's done, and he is really one of the experts in the country in this area," Lawrence said.

The public policy institute intends to provide more election analysis later in the year, including on the general election voting process and media coverage of the Obama and McCain campaigns.

caleb.hale@thesouthern.com / 351-5090

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