Oil was a bigger crisis for people two months ago, when the average price per gallon of gasoline was $3.70.

The $1.99-a-gallon gas prices Southern Illinoisans currently see at some local stations are by-products of troubled financial times. With what many call a worldwide economic meltdown in full swing, demand for oil has dropped significantly.

The Energy Information Administration, which forecasts energy consumption and production for the U.S. government, this week decreased its short-term world oil real gross domestic product outlook by the largest amount ever.

The administration now predicts GDP growth for oil will slow from the roughly 4 percent seen in 2006 and 2007 to 2.5 percent this year and further decrease to 1.8 percent in 2009. Effects will be more drastic in countries under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the agency's reports said.

Extraordinary economic circumstances of the moment, however, do not undo history, one that has seen a steady increase in demand for oil globally since the early 1980s.

"One of the things to keep in mind is the demand for oil is growing," said Silvia Secchi, assistant professor of agribusiness and energy economics at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

"In the U.S., we have become more efficient at using oil � so the amount of oil we produce is going down," Secchi said. "But, the countervailing influence is China and India have been growing at spectacular rates, and as they grow and become more industrialized, they need a lot more oil."

Secchi said there are important environment and national security reasons why the country should lessen its dependence on foreign oil.

The Energy Information Administration projects imported oil will represent about 70 percent of the total oil consumed in the U.S. by 2030.

Jonathan Bean, a history professor specializing in business history at SIUC, said there is an assumption importing energy from foreign suppliers is more dangerous than other types of products that come from abroad. He says people seem to be in a panic mode rather than a genuine panic when it comes to the future of energy.

"I think the long-term picture for the energy market looks good, and the oil market is the most efficient in the world," Bean said. "It's being produced in every region of the world. No one region - not China, Russia, Mexico - controls oil."

Politicians may whip up fear about foreign oil, but Bean said the market is simple economics.

"The oil market follows supply and demand, and that's exactly what we've seen in recent weeks as the price of oil went from an unsustainable $150 a barrel to $58 dollars a barrel," he said. "The fact that the oil comes from somewhere else is not a free market concern."

On Sunday, Nov. 23, The Southern Illinoisan examines these issues and more in the next installment of its year-long series, The Energy Project. From the role oil plays in the region to its effects on the global economy, and the concept that the world suffers from an oil "addiction," a series of staff reports in print and online will address what role oil will likely play in the future.

The special report will once again feature the views of our Energy Project panelists, plus a few new voices, on this important subject.

caleb.hale@thesouthern.com / 351-5090

the energy project: oil

The second installment of The Southern Illinoisan's year-long series, The Energy Project, is scheduled to be published in the Sunday, Nov. 23 edition of the newspaper and at www.thesouthern.com/energyproject.

Visit the Web site now to see the first part of the series and view its companion video. A second companion video, "The Oil Enigma," will debut on the site later this week.

Read more views from our panelists or share your thoughts on any energy topic on our blog at www.thesouthern.com/energyblog. A link is also available on The Energy Project home page.