SPRINGFIELD - Despite some encouraging signs about Illinois' overall economy, state government is "floundering" and will continue to do so in the coming months, a top budget expert said Monday.

Illinois lawmakers left town for the year Friday having made few major changes to the state budget, which is operating deep in red ink.

Top officials hope the launch of a long-sought public works program helps create some jobs to bring tax revenue to state coffers, but there are doubts about whether it will make any difference in the state's bottom line in the short-term.

"You're going to see some drastic cuts happening," predicted state Sen. Donne Trotter, a Democratic point person on the state budget. "At this point, all we can do is keep the lights on."

Over the weekend, Gov. Pat Quinn appointed a panel to study the state's economy, but he doesn't plan to actively lobby lawmakers for an income tax increase until the General Assembly returns to Springfield in mid-January.

And even then it could be February - after the primary election before lawmakers begin serious debate on a potential tax hike that could help close a budget gap of $11 billion.

Quinn said Friday he doesn't anticipate any "draconian" cuts in state programs in the interim and he's hoping the statewide construction program helps keep the state afloat until an overall solution is found.

"That's what public works do. They prime the pump," Quinn said.

Talk of the state budget comes as a monthly indicator of the Illinois economy showed some encouraging signs Monday.

The University of Illinois Flash Index rose to 90.7 in October, an increase of seven-tenths of a point from the previous month and the first substantial increase since the recession began two years ago.

University of Illinois economist J. Fred Giertz, who has compiled the Flash Index since 1995, said "considerable concern remains about the strength of the recovery, as evidenced by weak consumer spending."

Trotter says the state's situation remains dire. Vendors are months behind in getting paid for their services and Chicago transit systems say they need millions in state funds to avert service cuts or fare hikes.

"The so-called 'bump in the economy' hasn't bumped in Illinois yet," Trotter said. "We're floundering about."

Trotter acknowledged that raising taxes in an election year will be politically tricky.

"It's tough to do it. These are hard times, and it's going to call for extraordinary efforts on our part," Trotter said. "We can't wimp out just because some people are up for election."

Quinn, who is in the middle of a spirited battle for the Democratic nomination for governor against Comptroller Dan Hynes, said he is seeking to bring people together to work out solutions.

"That's what governor's do," Quinn told reporters Friday.

kurt.erickson@lee.net

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