What the Nolan Arenado deal means for Matt Carpenter, Nolan Gorman and the Cardinals lineup

Q: Is John Mozeliak in hiding? Is he contrite for what he just perpetrated? He should be. The cops are about to show up at his house (for the pending trade that landed Nolan Arenado).

A: Yes, it would seem only fair that Bill DeWitt Jr., Mozeliak and their staff be accorded some pats on the back by fans who had been disappointed in the front office's relative lack of activity in recent off-seasons and even less during the season. 

Q: Early analytics bump the Cardinals’ win projection by two to 88 wins with the Nolan Arenado trade. Sound about right?

A: I don't think the trade is being made to bump up by two wins. This was done to make the Cardinals a 90-plus win team, a heavy favorite to win the division and, depending on pitching, at least a threat to go deep into October/November. 

Q: How about Dexter Fowler batting leadoff against right-handed pitchers, which would be in line with Mike Shildt comments on platooning? His good track record in leading off plus his .350 on-base percentage vs. right handers the last two years seems to be a very good option with Harrison Bader being an obvious choice vs left-handed starters.

A: I can see Fowler being a leadoff candidate now that the Cardinals' lineup will have another proven power source in Nolan Arenado. This especially could be so if Tommy Edman doesn't walk enough to have a decent on-base percentage for a leadoff man. I still would leave Bader down the lineup until he shows he can get on base more often.

Q: Are the Cardinals not high on Andrew Kninzer as the next starting catcher?

A: The next starting catcher after Yadier Molina well could be 20-year-old Ivan Herrera, but he is at least a year away. If Molina is re-signed, as expected, Knizner needs to play more than he has recently as a backup to ascertain whether he could be a No. 1 type or not.

Q: Could the Cardinals catch the Dodgers, Padres and Braves offensively with the Nolan Arenado trade?

A: With Arenado all but here, my issue with the Cardinals being an upper-echelon team is their pitching, notably a rotation which wasn't all that good last year. Jack Flaherty, for sure, needs to be better. Dakota Hudson will be missed. Miles Mikolas has to show he is over his arm problems. Adam Wainwright has to show he has something left. Kwang-hyun Kim should be all right. But Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez or Daniel Ponce de Leon may have to go into the rotation, too. Without Hudson, who is your No. 2 starter?

Q: With the Nolan Arenado trade, what will happen with Nolan Gorman and Elehuris Montero if Arenado doesn't opt out?

A: Gorman doesn't have to be rushed necessarily, especially if the Arenado opt out is pushed back a year. By the time Gorman gets here, there will be a universal designated hitter, and there would be plenty of room for Gorman and Arenado.

Q: Now that the Cardinals landed the bat they needed, the next move will be to stand pat, get Kolten Wong, sign an outfielder? Or is Yadier Molina next?

A: Molina seems as if he will be back. There is little interest in bringing Wong back. A possible bench man with some sock might be next, be he an infielder or an outfielder. The resolution of the designated hitter might have something to do with that because Matt Carpenter will be the DH most often if there is one.

Q: Any indication on a plan for the outfield? Dylan Carlson has to be an everyday player, I imagine. Dexter Fowler probably. Could Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas, and/or Harrison Bader be on the trading block?

A: The outfielders you see are the ones you're going to get, I believe, with perhaps an addition later this winter. The starters, as I see them, are Carlson, Bader and Fowler, left to right. Subject to change, of course, although Carlson will be starting somewhere.

Q: How do you for see the minor-league seasons playing out?

A: Those minor leaguers not invited to big-league camp won't begin training at the spring-training sites until the big club has gone, meaning their spring training won't start until nearly April. However, as I understand it, their seasons could extend past Labor Day, when those seasons haven't before because there will be little room for September call-ups with rosters probably limited to 28 in September/October.

Q: Over the weekend Derrick Goold posted to Twitter a potential lineup, with Dylan Carlson leading off. Is it your impression that left field is Carlson’s to lose and Tyler O’Neill is on the bench?

A: I would hit Carlson second or, perhaps, first, and he will be an everyday player. O'Neill will be a platoon player until he shows he can make more contact.

Q: What’s your lineup, Commish? Should Arenado bat second or third? I think your best hitter should get as many at-bats as possible.

A: I like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado hitting in some 3-4 combination, but that works only if Dylan Carlson is good enough to hit first or second. 

Q: How do you for see the closing duties panning out?

A: If Alex Reyes isn't in the rotation, I can see him closing early in the season. I can also see Giovanny Gallegos being a part of the end of the game and Ryan Helsley, too. Jordan Hicks may ultimately have that job, if healthy, but he won't be rushed into that role at the start of the season.